December 19th, 2018

We are living in a period in which facts, truth & morals are the greatest casualties of this societal turmoil of unimaginable proportions which both Donald J Trump & Theresa May have brought upon us.

Both are attacking our free Society, stimulating the forces of Nationalism and Racism which have in our common dark history opened to door to fascism. While Donald Trump has been attacking our World order and US institutions, creating chaos and destruction, Theresa May has been attacking our European house of which the UK is an essential part, of which advantages Baroness Margaret Thatcher was convinced.

As Lord Heseltine said of the leave Brexit vote “It’s the day in which Britain lost more power and influence than in any other day of my peacetime life.”

The implications of the intended withdrawal by the United Kingdom from the European Union for EU, Europe, UK, transatlantic relationship, NATO and international relations are hard to overstate.

The economic implications of Brexit for the UK were summarized in 2016 by the Centre for Economic Performance London School of Economics and Political Science and is enclosed in the appendix.

As John van Reenen (MIT) notes Brexit supposed benefits such as lower immigration, better regulations and more trade transactions with non-EU would do very little of offset the economic losses.

Looking back at our common EU-UK history, we cannot avoid concluding the commitment of the UK to the European Union has always been in doubt evidenced by its early refusal to join the EEC in 1957. Since joining the European Union 1973 the UK has always been an awkward partner, motivated by the potential of the commercial and free trading zone, but at every turn delaying and frustrating integration of the political union.

During the period behind us the EU unwisely accommodated most demands from Thatcher to Cameron Euroscepticism by agreeing to a number of UK opt-outs (rebate on Britain’s contribution, exemption of the single currency, Schengen) and in doing so momentum for a federal Europe was lost.

In 2003 at the height of the Atlantic divisions the UK made its position clear by supporting the US in the second Iraq war.

As Sir Winston Churchill once told De Gaulle

if the UK had to choose between France and the U.S., Britain would always choose the US”

The grand illusion

In 2016 before the Brexit election, beautiful panorama’s were painted by the executioners of the Nation Farage, Rees-Mogg and Johnson which can be better called “Brexit the grand illusion,” based on the high self-opinion of Britain in the World are like Fata Morgana’s. They were based on false promises, lies and unrealistic ideas of world influence.

People essentially voted in 2016 in favour of Brexit in protest against domestic policies, globalization, domineering position of London and emigration. These leave voters obviously did not consider the dire consequences, the high economic costs associated with the withdrawal, the future of their children. Nor was the electorate informed in a clear manner and fully made aware how Brexit will make people poorer, limits opportunities and makes life in general more uncertain.

These executioners of Brexit Farage, Moss Rees, Davis and Johnson have shown themselves to be totally irresponsible lot and have failed to deliver on the promises made in 2016 and are still not able to agree on the question what Brexit is. As a result Brexit has put the UK unity under pressure for the years to come, while these divisions in Society will only end with the future generation.

Brexit has also shattered the trust in the UK union and most likely will lead to dissolvement of the union whereby Northern Ireland and Scotland will as independent states re-join the European Union in the future.

These executioners show us daily how human nature functions, immorality, hypocrisy, corruption, greed & fraud are all characteristics which have always existed and at best we are able to limit them, but never will we eliminate them.

In all of this the Conservative party is following the Trump “facts do not matter” playbook, but also the Labour party position, which party has never had a great attachment to the ideas of a united Europe, let alone a federal one is as disastrous as the position of the Conservatives party is. Both parties behave in a totally irresponsible and reprehensible manner and are unwilling and unable to consider the interest of Britain, its citizens and children.

Today after a debate of more than two years under the leadership of Theresa May the withdrawal has become a delusional process and it’s time to conclude Theresa’s May Brexit is like the Titanic which Captain has no compass to follow and is a totally rudderless ship.

Despite that the consequences have become clear, PM Theresa May seeks to proceed with the transaction which is not in the short-,medium- and long term interests of Britain. PM Theresa May and those who support her are knowingly damaging the country for the years to come with the understanding there is no majority for her Brexit deal, thereby ignoring the logical alternative which is a second referendum.

PM Theresa May is following her mantra “Brexit is Brexit” while seeking to outrun the parliamentary clock and at the same time is urging the parliament not to “break faith with the British people” by demanding a second referendum while she is pushing the country happily over the disastrous No-deal cliff, leading to loss of Britain’s tariff free status, increase of the cost of exports and custom delays effecting food and pharmaceuticals. A NO-deal Brexit would also be disastrous of the City of London and lead to the exodus of companies. Above all this would a great negative effect on the future of the younger generations who are paying the price and who will be eternally grateful for this betrayal.

In all of this the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has his own illusionary agenda, defiantly restating Labour’s policy of leading Britain out of the European Union with a refashioned Brexit deal, ignoring Labour MPs and activists for the party to support a second referendum. Corbyn is seeking to advance his own deplorable political programme, based on what Leninists called “revolutionary defeatism” believing in the victory of the proletariat.

There are some reasonable members in both partiehave who wish to avoid Brexit by arguing that “Freedom Of Movement” in the EU can be reformed by implementing controls by the member states, a suggestion earlier suggested by David Cameron “EU a la carte” and recently by Tony Blair and others which is just as delusional as Brexit is.

This leads to the conclusion that the time has come for sane minds in all parties to find their “profile in courage “ moment and start rejecting the extremists in both the Conservative and Labour party, if needed split the party and organise a second referendum based on the negotiation results of Brexit.

Should article 50 be revoked, which is highly likely, but welcoming back Britain in the European Union can be only realized with the understanding and acceptance by the UK that the EU intends to move forward with the political union and security and defense union..

But Britain must realize upon return trust has been effected and UK influence has been severely weakened at the main EU table.

William J J Houtzager

References

A European Union without the United Kingdom: The Geopolitics of a British Exit from the EU –  LSE IDEAS Strategic Update by Tim Oliver –

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards – Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

What are the economic consequences of Brexit? – Chris Giles FT 02/22, 2016

https://www.ft.com/content/70d0bfd8-d1b3-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377

Brexit’s Long-Run Effects on the U.K. Economy – John van Rheenen MIT

Brexit Consequences for the U.K., the EU, and the United States – KIMBERLY AMADEO 

https://www.thebalance.com/brexit-consequences-4062999

Agents’ survey on preparations for EU withdrawal and results from the Decision Maker Panel survey – Bank of England

Appendix 1.

Centre for Economic Performance London School of Economics and Political Science

CEP BREXIT ANALYSIS NO. 2

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

®The European Union (EU) is the UK’s largest trade partner. Around a half of the UK’s trade is with the EU. EU membership reduces trade costs between the UK and the EU. This makes goods and services cheaper for UK consumers and allows UK businesses to export more.

® Leaving the EU (‘Brexit’) would lower trade between the UK and the EU because of higher tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade. In addition, the UK would benefit less from future market integration within the EU. The main economic benefit of leaving the EU would be a lower net contribution to the EU budget.

® Our analysis first quantifies the ‘static’ effects of Brexit on trade and income. In an ‘optimistic’ scenario, the UK (like Norway) obtains full access to the EU single market. We calculate this results in a 1.3% fall in average UK incomes (or £850 per household). In a ‘pessimistic’ scenario with larger increases in trade costs, Brexit lowers income by 2.6% (£1,700 per household).

® All EU countries lose income after Brexit. The overall GDP fall in the UK is £26 billion to £55 billion, about twice as big as the £12 billion to £28 billion income loss in the rest of the EU combined. Non-EU countries experience some smaller income gains.

® If the UK unilaterally removed all its tariffs on imports from the rest of the world after Brexit, UK incomes fall by 1% in the optimistic case and 2.3% in the pessimistic case.

® In the long run, reduced trade lowers productivity. Factoring in these effects substantially increases the costs of Brexit to a loss of 6.3% to 9.5% of GDP (about £4,200 to £6,400 per household).

® Being outside the EU means that the UK would not automatically benefit from future EU trade deals with other countries. This would mean missing out on the current US and Japanese deals, which are forecast to improve real incomes by 0.6%.

® After Brexit, would the UK obtain better trade deals with non-EU countries? It would not have to compromise so much with other EU states, but the UK would lose bargaining power as its economy makes up only 18% of the EU’s ‘single market’.

® It is unclear whether there are substantial regulatory benefits from Brexit. The UK already has one of the OECD’s least regulated product and labour markets. ‘Big ticket’ savings are supposedly from abolition of the Renewable Energy Strategy and the Working Time Directive – both of which receive considerable domestic political support in the UK.

Posted in EU

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