Ukraine’s EU Negotiations: Unveiling the Long-Term Consequences

Ukraine’s EU Negotiations: Unveiling the Long-Term Consequences

✍️ Author’s Note

This reflection examines the strategic implications of Ukraine’s EU accession talks—highlighting not only what’s promised, but what’s at stake. Beneath the surface lies a reshaping of Europe, its cohesion, and its responsibilities.

The history of EU enlargement, spanning seven waves since 1952, highlights a tendency for expeditious actions, compromises on values, and lapses in enforcing standards, notably in Hungary and Poland. The EU’s rush to admit members without addressing deep-seated issues has resulted in serious breaches of its core values.

The European Union, a community founded on shared values and interests, faces challenges in opening its doors to aspiring members while lacking the capacity to absorb or integrate them all. President Macron’s 2019 veto, supported by the Netherlands and Denmark against North Macedonia and Albania’s candidacy emphasized the need for consolidation over enlargement.

Consolidation, closer integration, and greater strategic independence seems essential to protect the EU achievements made over the last fifty years, and would be an act of self-defence assisting Europe finding greater strategic clarity.

Calls for fundamental constitutional and treaty reforms, including addressing the unanimity principle in decision-making, persist. The EU’s enlargement strategy from 27 to 36 or 37 members, is presented as a catalyst for progress, bolstering geopolitical weight increasing the bloc’s internal market size by 66mn people to 517mn, and addressing labour shortages. However, it may be a catalyst for increased corruption, press freedom issues, and judicial independence concerns, potentially contributing to a break-up of the Union.

The recent granting of candidate status to Ukraine, amid a changing global climate, reflects a symbolic move with potentially weak foundations. It raises concerns about the EU’s function to perform and ability to expand responsibly.

While President Zelensky’s request for immediate accessioning reflects Ukraine’s urgency amid the Russian invasion, granting candidate status brings about significant challenges. The objections include Ukraine’s ongoing conflict, failure to meet Copenhagen criteria, a “hybrid democracy” status, corruption issues, and economic disparities.

The Economic Landscape:

The entry of nine states, including Ukraine, poses challenges to the EU’s budget arrangements and raises profound questions about its future. The potential increase in contributions from rich member states prompts concerns about the sustainability of the European project.

Agricultural Implications:

The agriculture position of Ukraine, larger than Italy, signals substantial changes in the benefits to many nations. With farm subsidies expected to fall by 20% following enlargement to nine new members, this would necessitate far-reaching reform adjustments to the existing budget arrangements. Current member states may find themselves paying more to and receiving less from the EU budget, and net receivers could become net contributors.

Financial Assistance for Ukraine:

The financial support provided by the EU during the war is substantial, since 2014 in the amount of Euro 84 billion, with intentions to provide Ukraine with €50 billion over four years to keep the war-torn country’s budget afloat. With the EU promising to support Ukraine ‘as long as it takes’! However, the question of how to fund this assistance remains a point of contention. The comprehensive evaluation by the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission, and the World Bank estimates the recovery and reconstruction costs at $349 billion (€349 billion), a staggering figure that highlights the immense financial burden ahead.

Consequences for EU Citizens:

The potential consequences of enlargement, especially in areas like the Common Agricultural Policy and regional spending, could trigger public debates and referendums in member states. The financial implications, coupled with changes in the economic benefits, may reshape the perception of EU citizens toward further expansion.

In summary, while the emotional appeal and urgent circumstances surrounding Ukraine’s request for EU membership can hardly be dismissed, the complexities involved, from economic shifts to financial burdens and agricultural implications, warrant a more comprehensive and reflective approach.

Initiating fast-track negotiations whether conditional or unconditional, appears akin to putting lipstick on a pig—emotionally satisfying, but possibly given the long-term impacts of Ukraine’s EU membership may prove to be a flawed decision at this time.

Netherlands, WJJH – December 2023

📌 Blog Excerpt

The recent granting of EU candidate status to Ukraine, amid a changing global climate, reflects a symbolic move with potentially weak foundations. It raises concerns about the EU’s function to perform and ability to expand responsibly.