Westphalia in the Atomic Age

Westphalia in the Atomic Age: On the Fragility of Peace and the Wisdom of Restraint

✍️ Author’s Note

This reflection traces the shifting currents of world order — from the American-led liberal hegemony of the postwar decades to the turbulent multipolarity of today. It is not a lament for lost supremacy, but a call to recognize the limits of nostalgia and the necessity of diplomacy in an interdependent world. I write it in the conviction that history’s lessons are clearest when we step back to take in the broadest possible scenery.

“The balance of power is not preserved by clinging to the past, but by adapting to the present.”
— Adapted from Henry Kissinger

A Multipolar World and America’s Dilemma

The international order has shifted into a multipolar reality—one that brings with it a disagreeable degree of disorder. Though the United States remains the most powerful actor, its ability to dictate the rules of global engagement has waned. The future of this disorderly system depends less on American dominance and more on the wisdom—or folly—of today’s leaders. We are, in many ways, living in what could be called a “Westphalia of the atomic age”: global confrontation may be avoided, but proxy wars are certain to persist.

I. The Old Order

After 1945, the United States stood unrivalled. With half of the world’s GDP and unmatched military and financial power, it built a post-war liberal order rooted in human dignity, international law, and property rights. Institutions such as the United Nations, NATO, the World Bank, and the IMF bore the imprint of American design.

This “liberal hegemonic order” departed from the Westphalian idea of sovereign states and leaned instead toward a constitutional global order—based on consensus, rules, and American leadership. Europe, devastated by war, rebuilt itself with American aid and protection. The Marshall Plan not only underpinned recovery but also laid the groundwork for European integration, offering an alternative to destructive nationalism. Yet Europe’s dependence on U.S. security limited its sovereignty from the very beginning.

II. The Cracks Appear

American dominance was always contested. With German unification and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. faced choices it mishandled. Instead of consolidating peace, it drifted into adventurism. Regime change, military interventions, and unilateralism eroded trust. Allies began to question not only the style but the morality of American foreign policy.

The rise of China accelerated this shift. Unlike Germany or Japan after 1945, China had no intention of becoming an “honorary member of the West.” As Lee Kuan Yew once observed, China insisted on being accepted as China. It grew into the world’s largest trading nation, the manufacturing hub of the globe, and a leader in green energy, artificial intelligence, and infrastructure.

III. Multipolar Disorder

China’s ascent is not solitary. India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and others are asserting their own spheres of influence. The so-called “hedging middle”—countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America—are increasingly drawn to a multipolar vision that promises sovereignty, respect, and opportunity. The rise of BRICS is emblematic of this shift. It is not about replacing the West but about balancing it, ending the era when the G7 dictated the rules unchallenged.

The failure to reform the United Nations underscores the problem. Despite calls from most of its 192 members, the veto power of the permanent five remains intact, producing paralysis and injustice. U.S. backing of Israel’s defiance of resolutions illustrates how selective application of rules corrodes legitimacy. China, meanwhile, calls for reforms that reflect today’s realities rather than those of 1945.

IV. America at Home

The challenge to American power is not only external. At home, the promise of the American Dream is fading. Inflation erodes wages, infrastructure crumbles, and inequality widens. Housing and healthcare costs lock out younger generations while tax policies favour the affluent. The middle class shrinks, and the ladder of opportunity grows steeper.

Donald Trump has capitalized on this discontent with a nostalgic vision of American supremacy. His “Make America Great Again” rhetoric offers domination abroad and scapegoats at home, but little in the way of real investment or strategy. He ignores that America’s share of world GDP has halved since 1945, while BRICS now surpasses the G7 in purchasing power. Tariffs, isolationism, and slogans cannot reverse these trends.

History does not move backwards. The emperor has no clothes.

V. The Path Ahead

America cannot turn back the clock to an era when Washington dictated terms unchallenged. It remains a great power, but one enmeshed in an interdependent world. Attempting to decouple from China or to retreat into isolation will only accelerate decline.

The great challenges of the 21st century—climate change, inequality, global health—cannot be solved through militarization or nationalist bluster. They demand cooperation, thoughtful diplomacy, and a recognition that shared prosperity is not weakness but survival.

If the United States can accept the realities of multipolarity and return to diplomacy as the central tool of statecraft, it can still play a pivotal role in shaping a stable order. But clinging to fantasies of lost supremacy risks only chaos—both at home and abroad.

📖 Blog Excerpt

The international order has drifted into a state of multipolar disorder. America, once the unchallenged architect of a liberal world order, now faces a reality in which China, BRICS, and the so-called “hedging middle” nations reshape trade, diplomacy, and power itself. Yet at home, the promise of the American Dream is slipping away, eroded not by foreign competition but by domestic choices. The danger lies not only in clinging to fantasies of lost supremacy but in failing to recognize that cooperation, not domination, is the key to survival in the 21st century.

WJJH, September, 2025